SOUNDBITES
FROM A CONFERENCE – DAY 4.
The final
day of the 13th Annual Herzlia Conference began with an analytical
assessment of Israel’s military and security position in a turbulent Middle
East delivered by Maj.Gen. Aviv Kochavi, the Director of Military Intelligence.
IDF.
Here are
some recent facts that affect Israel’s military security. The Syrian air force
has conducted over fifty air strikes against their own civilians. Between
400-500 Egyptians have been murdered in Egypt since Morsi took over from
Mubarak. Jihad is being waged in Syria and the Sinai. These are the tip of the
iceberg in the Middle East. Each has an input on Israel’s security forces. We
are experiencing a complex reality. Islamization, and the shake-up in the
region, is the main generators in our region. With the shake-up of failing
states, Islamization is filling the political void from the Magreb to Turkey.
Islamization is involved politically, socially, with welfare, education, and
the military. The Muslim Brotherhood promotes their agenda. Egypt is now based
on the Ashura religious doctrine. Journalists are imprisoned in Egypt,
Palestinian territories, and Turkey for speaking out against their regimes.
Ongoing riots show the dissatisfaction of the people with the new Egyptian
regime. They don’t see economic results from the change of government. In
places like Egypt, Gaza, and even Lebanon, the extremist Salafists are gaining
strength. The old definition of “radical and “moderate” is no
longer relevant. We now have the Shia-Sunni divide. Hamas is looking for
support from Egypt and Qatar rather than Iran.
There is a rift between Jordan and Egypt. For the first time in the
Middle East there are four superpowers – Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Iran
– all driven by religious realities. It is a religious paradigm. Apart from
issues of borders, religion is important. Israel, to them, is a foreign body.
Despite their dislike of Israel, they are not one block. There are hues and
shades, but Israel is perceived as unacceptable in the Middle East neither by
political or radical Islam.
In Syria,
Libya, Iraq, Sudan, Mali, the borders re up for grabs. Jihad is moving from
global to local. It is not only in our area. It is happening in Africa. The
Sinai and Syrian borders affect us in Israel. In Syria, both sides of the
conflict are creating ties and moving into Lebanon, over our northern border.
It is
dismal looking at the economic situation around us. Syria, Jordan, Egypt, with
their poverty, growing populations, food crisis, water and energy shortages.
These are factors that will leave them in dire straits. These failing states
give us major security headaches with the additional of the radical elements
filling the vacuum. The reality looks bad. Some have already declared the next
stage, for them, is Israel. This will create yet another reality.
Syria is
a country falling apart. They have 1,400,000 refugees. There have been 1200 terror incidents. It
cannot be seen as a complete country. There is now an Assad state and a rebel
state with shifting lines. The decisive battles will take place in Tartus, on
the shoreline, in Halab, and Damascus.
The areas around these places, including the roads, are in the hands of
the rebels. In other words, most of the Syrian towns are in rebel hands. The Golan Heights have enclaves with rebels
or the Syrian army. Gas, water, pipelines, power stations are in the hands of
the rebels. Damascus has regular power cuts of up to eleven hours a day. The regime
cannot impose their authority. Inflation has grown to 50%. The price of bread
is up seven fold. The Syrian army now has less than 13,000 people. They can’t
recruit from their own people as they many have fled the violence. Their
soldiers have taken heavy casualties. Most of their weaponry and ammunition are
in the hands of their Division 4 and their Republican Guards. Their air force
is only used for attacks against rebels and civilians. They use live
ammunition, Scud missiles, and 200 kg rockets on town centers. His armory is
degrading. Assad is preparing, but has not used, chemical weapons. He is
bringing in Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon. Iran and Hezbollah act
strategically to prolong this regime. Iran and Hezbollah are also preparing for
the after the fall of Assad so that their own forces will remain to claim a
stake in a future Syria and keep the Shiite influence in that country. The opposition to Assad is made up of the
Free Syrian Army who now has a new chief and is 100,000 strong. There are also
radical elements including Al-Qaida affiliates. Qatar supplies the weaponry and
they are trying to eliminate the radical elements. The jihadi fighters number
about 5000. They are armed with more sophisticated weapons than the other rebel
forces. Most Syrians are Sunni and want a complete Syria. They oppose the
Shiites. Assad’s allies, the Iranians and Hezbollah have flooded Syria with a
militia of 50,000 fighters who will remain as spoilers after Assad’s fall.
Iran’s
nuclear plan is progressing. They have three main agendas – the struggle to
maintain influence in Syria, their nuclear program, and developing Iranian
sectors around the world. They already have 10,000 working centrifuges and
another 5000 to be installed. They have 240 kg of uranium enriched to 20%. This
quantity is good for 4 or 5 bombs if the Ayatollahs give the order. This will
take a few more months. They continue to produce plutogen. They keep trying to
buy time but there are cracks in the coherence within the regime due to
sanctions. Iranian oil exports have dropped from 2.2 million barrels a day down
to 1.1 million. Their vehicle industry
production dropped 60%. Criticism grows in the street and in the regime, but
they still haven’t reduced their nuclear program. They increase global terror.
Sudan has turned to Iran and has become the main terror transit to Sinai. Iran does not perceive an attack on its
nuclear facilities as being a reality.
Following
Operation Pillar of Defense, Hamas has turned more to governance due to the
damage and deterrent caused by our response to their rocket fire. Their people
know that they suffered damage but that the Hamas campaign against Israel did
not achieve them anything. Mahmoud Abbas is irrelevant after Operation Pillar
of Defense. The Palestinian Authority is in deep financial distress. There is
no peace process. So he waits and drags his feet. This can lead to him losing
the West Bank to Hamas. Palestinian prisoners are an authentic issue for them. Hamas
is employing a “strategic-diplomatic track” aimed at taking over the
West Bank through conciliation with the Palestinian Authority.
There are
200,000 rockets aimed at Israel. Most are short range. They improve their
trajectory, range, and efficiency. The
IDF needs to secure its four borders. The IDF also faces terror abroad, a growing
cyber threat, and a deteriorating neighborhood with jihadi elements. There is a
general lack of certainty and growing instability. The IDF Military
Intelligence is reforming itself and is changing systems, intelligence
gathering, and the social networking to face the new challenges.
Aviv
Kohavi’s report was both breathtaking and comprehensive.
The panel
for “In Search of a Strategy: US, Europe, and the Middle East” was
kicked off very candidly by Alexandr Vondra, the former Deputy Prime Minister
and Defense Minister of the Czech Republic. In 2009, the Czechs had the
presidency of the EU and proved to be a good ally of Israel. In fact, they were the only European nation
to vote against the Palestinian UN move for statehood. “There is popular
sentiment in Europe that is critical of Israel,” he said, “but we in
Czechoslovakia don’t have Mosques and Muslims unlike Belgium, and EU policy is
demographic. It is difficult for a unified EU strategy with these different
views and attitudes.” He also
pointed out, to applause, that in the recent Czech presidential elections all
three candidates, including the Social Democrat candidate, were strongly
pro-Israel.
Derek
Collett, the US Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security
Affairs explained the close security ties between America and Israel. There
have been a hundred defense engagements between the US and Israel a year. Leon
Panetta met Ehud Barak more than any other Defense Minister. We appreciate
the work of Barak and look forward to working with Israel’s new defense
Minister.” There have been 32 robust training exercises between America and
Israel in four years. “Chuck Hagel is keen to continue these exercises. We
want Israel’s participation in NATO to deepen and we are working on that. It is
not possible to see NATO involvement in the Middle East without Israel’s
involvement.”
Jasper
Vohl, the Director of the Private Office of the Secretary-General of NATO said,
“NATO has no desire to be involved militarily in Syria. While NATO is not
ready to take a military role we do want a dialogue role and engage with
practical assistance in a strategic partnership. We have tools to offer for
security in the turmoil in the Arab world and with the Arab League. Non-discrimination
is a key to NATO.”
Major-General
(res.) Amos Gilead, Director of the Political-Military Bureau in the Ministry
of Defense said, “There is no way that the US, EU, or Israel can tolerate a
nuclear Iran. Ayatollah Khameni asks ‘Can we develop a bomb?’ He only wants to
hear one answer –‘Yes’ Ahmadinajad is the best marketing agent of the Iranian
regime, but he doesn’t make the decisions. Khameni does. The United States is
concerned about the timing, not the process. If Iran gets the bomb Saudi
Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt will follow and the Middle East will look like hell.
How will Middle East terror look with a nuclear Iran? “Gilead said it is a
clear policy of the US to cooperate with Israel and this is a major pillar of
Israel’s national security. “I can’t see us without it. We also have a
better cooperation with Europe. It’s better than it appears in the newspapers.”
“The
military option must remain on the table and this is homework for the United
States, if I may speak as a little Czech. This country, Israel, has the right
of self-defense,” said Alexandr Vondra.
There was
a question addressed to Derek Collett. “There are questions in Israel of is
the United States serious about ‘all options on the table.’ We are leaving our
national security in your hands. Are we right?” The answer given included
the current American military capability that has been employed to the Gulf and
close to the Straits of Hormus as a clear message to the Iranians that America
is serious. He was challenged again by
the statement that the Iranians do not believe that force will be used against
them. Collett pointed out the diplomatic and sanction pressure on Iran. “We
still have time. We are in constant dialogue with Israel, trading intelligence,
but there is no question in our resolve. The President will make that clear
when he comes to Israel as will Hagel.”
Amos
Gilead was asked would Israel step in if the international community does not
deal with Syria? His answer was that the Golan Heights was still a relatively
quiet border. The chemical weapons are under control. Any high profile Israeli
action is damaging. “It is an international problem. Syria is a
multi-dimensional problem. The less Israel does the better.”
We heard
differing views on Syria in other panels. Here are some of the soundbites from
the experts.
“The
attitude not to meddles in Syria is wrong and naïve. The Iranians and Hezbollah
have their allies and proxies in Syria. They continue to rain and arm them. We
cannot allow them the freedom by not getting involved.” Salameh Nemett. Jordan Communications
Consultant.
“In Syria,
we are not seeing Western intervention even on humanitarian grounds.” Kerstin Muller. Spokesperson for the Alliance 90/Green
Party Parliamentary Group, Germany.
“If
the United States continues its policy of ‘leading from behind’ we could likely see a worst case scenario where
neither side wins in Syria with the rebels taking the periphery and the Assad
regime controlling Damascus.”
“The
Red Line in Syria is that you can kill everybody but don’t use chemical
weapons.”
“Lack
of interest with the opposition in Syria leads to the Islamic Sunni block with
a resentment against American and the West. The closest target for this
resentment is Israel.”
Soundbites
from the panel “Economic Crisis and Political Instability on a Post-Spring
Middle East” began with moderator
Judy Miller of the Manhattan Institute and Fox News contributor explaining
economics and the upheaval in the Arab world this way, “Rich or poor having
money eases the pain of the Arab Spring.
Rich or poor, being a king delays the disaster. The absence of America
encourages the deterioration. “
It often
takes an Israeli at these conferences to talk common sense. I recall two years ago the Herzlia Conference
had panels on the ‘Arab Spring.’ Most European and American experts saw this as
something fresh and positive. All the Israeli experts spoke gloomily about what it was really all
about. This year the overseas panelists are less willing to call it the ‘Arab
Spring.’ Those that refuse to see it as the ‘Islamic Winter” struggled to find
a new definition. We had people offering ‘The Arab Awakening,’ and the ‘Arab ReAwaking’ . This may be true. They
are coming out of a dream and discovering a nightmare in reality. Others tried
‘A Middle East Transition’ as if what we are seeing is something positive.
Distance from the turmoil, it seems, blunts the use of language.
Israel
Elad-Altman, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Policy and Strategy at
IDC Herzlia spoke a lot of sense about the new Egyptian government and their
terrible economic situation. “If the Muslim Brotherhood had partnered with
the non-Islamists it would have stopped the flight of capital and talented
people. This Muslim Brotherhood doesn’t think of Egypt. It thinks of the
Islamic Umma. They say ‘Who is not part of the Muslim Brotherhood is not part
of us.’ They pushed out the secular elements and they have burned their
bridges. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has to stop being Pan-Arabist, Islamic
Umma.To complete the reality check, there is no opposition in Egypt. The
opposition was attacked, discredited, and called traitors. This led to the
disappearance of the opposition. Democracy, for the Muslim Brotherhood and for
Hamas, is the right of the majority to oppress the minority. Morsi needs to
change his name to Mohamed Mandela and step back from his party to be an
inclusive president.”
Summarising the topic
of the emergence of a Sunni Axis and the Balance of Power in the Middle East,
the main events included the attempt of secular young people to revolt in
Tahrir Square being hijacked by the Islamic Muslim Brotherhood, Iraqi
disintegration, the impending fall of Assad, and the emergence of the Egypt,
Turkey, and Qatar as key players to challenge Shiite Iran and the Hezbollah
takeover of Lebanon. With failing states and the rise of tribalism, the
Sunni-Shia divide became even stronger. This vector of chaos leads to conflict.
As one wit put it “We are now eating more SuShi (Sunni-Shia) these days.” The disintegration of Syria will escalate the
Sunni-Shia conflict. If Iran is deprived of its nuclear capability it will
deprive it of its Shia hegemony. If Iran gets nuclear it will increase it and
the Shiite element as a regional and global power. Elliot Abrams agreed that the Sunni axis is a
reaction to the Shia axis. This comes as a result of the perception of a rising
Iran and a weakening America. “We have,” he said, “ a common interest
with the Sunnis against Iran and their proxies. The Sunni axis is increasingly
an anti-China axis. China has, despite sanctions, kept strong commercial ties
with Iran. They back Assad against both Sunni, US, and also Israeli interests.
It is a fear of the Iranian-led Shia axis.”
Brian Katulis, Senior
fellow at the Center for American Progress said that the Middle East has become
a multi-polar, multi-dimensional struggle for power. The United Arab Emirates
and Qatar have differing views on the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood. Sudan is
a Sunni majority yet has strong ties with Shia Iran. It doesn’t neatly fit into
the Sunni-Shia divide.
Riad al Khouri from
Jordan said that King Abdullah did coin the phrase “the Shia Crescent.”
He said it is helpful to describe the two as the Sunni “Conservative” axis
and the Shia “Radical” axis. Jordan is stable but economically fragile.
Jordan’s stability is important to Saudi Arabia. “We hope new forms of
energy can help our economy and energy needs to maintain Jordan’s neutrality.”
Salameh Nemett from
Jordan said the failure of the rulers and parties to build modern states
encouraged an Islamic form of politics. The Sunni axis is to cut the Iranian
tentacles in the region. Worryingly, a Jihadi Salafist movement is emerging.
Nemett gave a list of murderous events that had taken place in Iraq a day
before that included suicide bombing, car bombs, murders of prominent people,
most of which didn’t register in the main media channels. He listed how Sunni
political groups and parties were shifting away from Iran. He included Hamas
which was now being supported by the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood and by
Qatar. He was critical of the election
slogan posted by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt that “Islam is the way!”
“There is no Islamic way to collect the garbage and make the buses run on time.
There is no way to run a country according to Islam. Not in Pakistan and not in
Iran.”
Riad al Khouri thought
that Israel could be the example to the Muslim world. “The new government
has reformed and appears to separate synagogue and state while remaining a
Jewish state. This may calm down the
Muslim world. They cannot continue to accuse Israel of radical Judaism. They
should begin to separate Mosque and State.”
Elliot Abrams jumped in
and protested that nothing Israel will do will affect the anti-Semitic hatred
of Islamic regimes. Hamas, he said, will call to murder Jews whether they be
religious or secular. Suicide bombers don’t differentiate between religious and
secular Jews when they blow up a bus in Jerusalem. “Having a secular Jewish life in Israel
does not affect the attitude and agenda of radical Islamic regimes.”
The final panel covered
Israel’s National Security strategy in a changing Middle East. The keynote
speaker was Dan Meridor who was Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of
Intelligence ans Atomic Energy in the outgoing Israeli government. He gave us a
brief history of Israel’s national security history starting with David
Ben-Gurion who based it on four pillars – the military, linkage with a
superpower, projecting the image of a nuclear power as a deterrent to our
enemies, and the global support of the Jewish people. Since then, he claimed,
there has not been a clear national security strategy. He headed a committee
just before the Lebanon War of 2006 which was not formally adopted. Since then Israel’s
NS strategy has evaporated. Security not only protects Israel’s existence, it
plays a central role in Israel.
Echoing IDF Chief of
Staff, General Benny Gantz, on the first day of the conference, Meridor said, “If
you are ready for last year’s war you may not be ready for next year’s war. You
can’t be fixated on the past while the world is changing under our noses.”
Reflecting on the
misconceptions of regime change in the Arab world he remarked about Egypt thus,
“We thought that the old regimes was about to topple and Thomas Jefferson was
going to sail up the Nile. This world is turbulent with its religious
identities. There is an enormous wave of change and we are being swept up in
it. We once had three or four defined enemies. Today we have tens, if not hundreds,
of regimes, groups, organizations, acting against us.”
Major General Ido
Nehushtan, former Chief Commander of Israel’s Air Force and former head of IDF
Planning Directorate, addressed the issue of deterrence and the ability of act
to prevent terror. One main pillar is high quality and precise intelligence.
Another is pro-actively strengthening our capabilities. We are engaged in the
defense against rockets, the protection of borders, and the challenges of
cyber. “Churchill once said ‘We’re out of money. That means we’ve got to
think.’ Budget restrictions force us to think how we can maintain and build an
efficient defense force in the future while we maintain our qualitative edge.
That involves the equipment we use, the training, and the size and structure of
the army. This all has long term impact. This is risk management at the highest
level. “
Shlomo Avineri, of the
Hebrew University and former Director-General of he Ministry of Foreign Affairs
reminded us that, for the last forty years, Israel did not find itself at war
with an Arab army. Up to 1973 Israel had to fight for its life. Since then, not
so. “This is a strategic achievement,” he said. “Today we have
another complex. With the recent Arab ReAwakening, they were all in military
dictatorships. The kingdom weren’t really challenged. This may change. The
Arabs kings claim some sort of family link with Mohammed. If you are an
offspring of the Prophet it gives you some sort of protection from riots. The
structure of a religious civil society gives them pause.”
“It’s not a question
of who is going to rule Syria, but what.”
Regarding Israel’s
national security strategy, Avineri rhetorically questioned, “To what extent
do my politics affect my ability to recruit the support of important allies?”
Amos Yadlin, the Director
of the Institute for National Security Studies joked. “In Israel there is no
euphoria, no panic. Just slight paranoia. We think that 200,000 missiles will
fall on us that Syrian chemical weapons
from Syria will be launched against us, that we will face a third Intifada from
the Palestinians, and that an Iranian nuclear bomb will destroy us. So far,
none of these things has happened. Israel has the strongest army and the best
air force. Our public expect us to win the war in three hours, maximum six
days. There is also an attitude that our civilians can get killed but not our soldiers
yet expect us to wipe out the enemy. The nuclearization of Iran continues but
Israel has not yet attacked. We are the pigs and monkeys according to Egypt. Israel
has managed to deter terrorin the north and south. Our failing is that we haven’t
deterred our international legitimacy and, without that, our ability to protect
ourselves is harmed.”
Addressing Iran, Yadlin
said, “America and Israel is drawing closer together over the prevention of
a nuclear Iran. The danger of bombing Iran is less than being a target. After
sanctions there could be a blockade on Iran. Having them come to the table is
conditional on stronger sanctions. The axis that goes from Tehran to Damascus
to Beirut is broken. Syria is being broken for us for free. As for the
Palestinians, we do not put our fate in their hands. We must take our fate into
our own hands.”
I have given you the
gist of a massive and wide-ranging conference. With its closed-door
roundtables, simulations, war games, sessions, keynote speakers, and intensive
networking in the coffee breaks and lunches, it is a mind-blowing experience
allowing me only some of the most interesting soundbites to give you the flavor
of the event. I hope my four reports offer you some light on the complexities of
the major issues that burden Israel and the free world. If you would like
copies of all four report please let me know and I will be pleased to send them
to you.
Barry Shaw,
The View from Israel.
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