Monday, 25 November 2013

Iran after Geneva, and the implications for Israel.

Iran after Geneva, and the implications for Israel.

Original Thinking from Barry Shaw.

When you give the most dangerous regime in the world the right to enrich uranium you give them the most significant step in obtaining the most dangerous weapon in the world, namely a nuclear bomb.

This was done despite 6 UN Security Council resolutions depriving Iran from any right to enrich uranium. As for the argument that they need to enrich uranium for civil use of nuclear energy this is a flat lie. You don’t need enriched uranium or to spin 18,000 centrifuges to provide civilian-use energy. You only need it to make weapon grade fissile material.

They say that they had to cobble together this deal because the Iranians refused to give up enriched uranium.
The West and Russia, led by America, have said “ignore the laws and the resolutions, despite the enormous dangers and risks to the world, we will break the law and grant untrustworthy Iran the right to enrich uranium because they demanded this condition, and we will ease sanctions.” How wrong-headed can they be?
This is like saying that magistrates allow a thief to continue stealing in smaller quantities because he refuses to give up stealing. It’s ridiculous. It’s absurd!

Kerry said, in a press conference that the agreement does not say that the Iranians have the right to enrich uranium. He was being disingenuous, to put it mildly, and he knows it.

Today, Iran has 19,462 centrifuges inside two uranium enrichment plants. These machines could be used to make fuel for nuclear power stations – or the core of a nuclear weapon. In comparison, Pakistan which is reputed to already have 100 nuclear bombs only has 6000 centrifuges. Iran today has three times more than Pakistan.

Let me be detail specific. Most of the centrifuges are the new IE-2m type. These are considered to be between 3 to 5 times more efficient than the recent IR-1 type. Therefore, it needs far fewer centrifuges than before to spin low grade uranium up to weapon grade uranium needed to produce bombs.  
The deal says Iran must stop using 9500. This leaves 10,000 spinning. That means Kerry is wrong in what he said.

The deal says Iran will stop enriching uranium to the 20 per cent purity that is close to weapons grade. Its existing stockpile of this material will be converted into harmless oxide. There is nothing to stop Iran from reversing the process of converting oxide back into enriched uranium.

The deal that was struck does not roll back Iran’s nuclear weapon program. In places, it freezes it temporarily, such as stopping construction of the heavy water plant in Arak. However, inspectors can only visit some of the Iranian nuclear facilities and are prevented from visiting others, including the secret plants where the world does not know what is going on there. Remember that Iran is a lying, cheating, regime that has gotten deception and deceit down to a fine art.

The only other roll-back is President Obama rolling back President Bush’s ‘axis of evil’ as applied to Iran. It is an integral part of Obama fundamentally changing the world. He is so determined to reshape the world in his image that he is prepared to gift the mad mullahs of Tehran the right to enrich uranium despite the protests of America’s allies in the region. If he is wrong, as we believe he is, this will be the biggest mistake in world history. The disaster of Obamacare will be dwarfed in comparison to a nuclear-armed Iran. 

I have another take on Obama. It is well known in Washington and the British Foreign Service circles that certain influential diplomats have been educated as and prefer to be Arabists.
They seek to gain influence and base their careers in the Arab world. That’s where the wealth is. 
Obama, on the other hand, has a strong tendency to be an Islamist.  I am not saying that he is a Muslim. I am saying that his foreign policy tends to favor Islamist regimes.
He gave his support to the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, the Syrian rebels against Assad, the strong Islamist trend of Turkey, forgiving Palestinian crimes and terrorists, but being tough on Israel, and now Iran, are prime examples.

Israel fully expects the world, one day, to hear Obama make yet another apology and say, “Everything would have been all right if Iran hasn’t lied to me,” to paraphrase Neville Chamberlain after Hitler marched into Poland.

That is at the heart of the friction between Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the West led by America. We know the real face of Iran. The West is far too naïve. They have been taken for suckers, according to our perspective. That is why this deal is a good deal for Iran and an awful deal for the world. The centrifuges keep spinning. The only thing that is really being rolled back is the sanctions. Iran gets economic relief as they continue to enrich. Maybe they will not spin to 20% uranium as stipulated in the agreement, but maybe they will. Can we be sure the inspectors get to visit every facility? Certainly not. Iran is moments away from being a nuclear threshold state. This means it will enable it to be weeks away from rushing to become a full nuclear state. Is that what we really want from a messianic theology that predicts the End of Days with the destruction of Israel to bring about the arrival of the Mahdi, their holy messiah?

When they say that sanctions relief will only be in the region of $7 Billion, they are lying. They have suspended sanctions on Iran’s petrochemical exports, gold, and other precious metals. Iran’s efforts to sell crude oil will not be impeded. They can sell auto parts. They can install and supply aircraft parts.  Major international companies will again start trading with Iran as Europe and America will turn a blind eye to their dealings. 

When the deal says that Iran cannot enrich to above 5% means they have given Iran the right to enrich.   What these negotiators have done is made it impossible to reverse this ruling, but also made it impossible to prevent any other regime from enriching uranium. You cannot say it’s OK for Iran to enrich but Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Iraq, Syria, cannot. Obama has given the green light for nuclear proliferation, a nuclear power race, and that is deadly dangerous.

Let me give you another perspective that is troubling to Israel. 
Israel says it has the right, under international law, to build houses in Judea & Samaria, but what do the same Europeans led by Catherine Ashton and America’s Obama and Kerry say? “Over our dead body! Never! Don’t you dare to do it otherwise we will impose heavy sanctions, isolate you, and encourage the Palestinians to commit terror against you.”  Do you see the immoral equivalence of the two scenarios? It’s OK for Iran  to keep its nuclear facilities in place, but Israel is guilty of heinous international crimes if it builds in Jewish towns like Ariel and Maale Adumim, or gives employment to Arabs and Jews.

The Obama Administration, which failed in everything it turned its hand to, and the EU under Catherine Ashton, think they know what is good for Israel both with Iran and the Palestinians. In both cases, they close their eyes to the facts and the reality of what both regimes stand for. Both continue to call for “Death to Israel.” Both employ terror and incitement against the Jewish state. Both hate America, despite their diplomatic smiles.

Had America been tough with Iran, Israel may have gambled on American pressure to surrender its rights to the Palestinians in the current peace talks knowing it had the assertive backing of America. Should the Palestinians prove themselves to be as deceptive and untrustworthy as the Iranians. Let’s be honest, there is nothing stopping a future Palestinian state to be any less a rogue state as Iran and not keep its commitments.  But now, Israel would be foolish to trust American commitments after witnessing their performance in Geneva, and in the recent past. 

At this moment in time, Syria still retains its chemical weapons despite its promises. Iran retains its infrastructure to develop a nuclear weapon. The Palestinians retain the desire and the weapons to launch massive terror against Israel. So does Hezbollah in Lebanon. All this against the backdrop of a weakening America in the Middle East. Israel will not be willing to put its security and faith in an American Administration that is gambling Israel’s fate.

I want to make this clear. Iran is already a nuclear threshold state. It reached this position due to the inept and slow attitude of the international diplomatic community to respond to the warnings of Israel for more than a decade.
Before this Geneva agreement, Iran was a nuclear threshold state with leper status in the world. After this deal, Iran is now a nuclear threshold state with international legitimacy.

The world, under America’s leadership, has let this rogue regime off the ropes.

Israel cannot forget that, while the negotiators were talking in Geneva, Iran’s Supreme leader, Khameni, was telling his people that Israel is a rabid dog that is doomed to collapse, while the crowd was chanting “Death to America!”
There is Jewish saying, born of bitter experience. “Always believe the threats of your enemy more than the promises of your friends.”

Barry Shaw is the author of ‘Israel Reclaiming the Narrative.’

No comments: